Bayesing

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Bayesing

Title text: You can't prove me wrong because your proof requires arithmetic to work.

Votey

Explanation

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Transcript

I think we should all try to be bayesians.

What?! Bayesianism can't possibly be true, and the proof is easy.

Suppose your prior probability that 0 equals 1 is precisely 0.

You take a field observation and find that to your surprise 0 equals 1.

The probability of that observation, given your prior assumption, is, let's say, 0.5.

Bayesians should update but they can't because the observation that 0 equals 1 would change the mathematics of bayes' theorem directly, making the probability both 0 and 1!

Your argument is that bayes' theorem can't account for incredibly stupid shit?

And thus cannot be a complete description of our universe!

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Discussion

"You could be presented with evidence that 0=1, but it will never be persuasive, because the prior is 0. So the Bayesian will always remain absolutely certain that 0≠1 no matter what evidence he is presented with, because thwt’s what a prior of 0 means." https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/bayesing?ht-comment-id=13700759