Bayesing
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| Bayesing |
 Title text: You can't prove me wrong because your proof requires arithmetic to work. |
Votey[edit]
Explanation[edit]
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This explanation is either missing or incomplete. |
Transcript[edit]
- I think we should all try to be bayesians.
- What?! Bayesianism can't possibly be true, and the proof is easy.
- Suppose your prior probability that 0 equals 1 is precisely 0.
- You take a field observation and find that to your surprise 0 equals 1.
- The probability of that observation, given your prior assumption, is, let's say, 0.5.
- Bayesians should update but they can't because the observation that 0 equals 1 would change the mathematics of bayes' theorem directly, making the probability both 0 and 1!
- Your argument is that bayes' theorem can't account for incredibly stupid shit?
- And thus cannot be a complete description of our universe!
Votey Transcript[edit]
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Discussion
"You could be presented with evidence that 0=1, but it will never be persuasive, because the prior is 0. So the Bayesian will always remain absolutely certain that 0≠1 no matter what evidence he is presented with, because thwt’s what a prior of 0 means." https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/bayesing?ht-comment-id=13700759